The impact of factors on GDP in Kyrgyzstan

The purpose of the article is to show the negative impact of the COVID-19 on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in Kyrgyzstan. The research methodology is based on the works of domestic scientists and information and analytical reviews regarding GDP in Kyrgyzstan. An analysis was made of GDP growth after the country's accession to the EAEU (Eurasion Economic Union). Our country sought to join this union, and as it turned out, not in vain. The positive results from the performance in the EAEU are shown, especially for such a macroeconomic indicator as GDP. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP in Kyrgyzstan and in other countries has been revealed. The consequences of the pandemic have been devastating for almost all countries. An analysis was made of the decline in GDP during the pandemic in Kyrgyzstan. Measures are given to ensure positive dynamics of the economic growth, such as the creation of favorable conditions for entrepreneurship;improving the business and stimulating investment activity;creating conditions for increasing productivity in the real sector of the economy;strengthening foreign trade relations and developing the domestic market. The obtained scientific results can be used in the program to improve the economic situation in the country. © 2023 The Authors.

Lessons for the Age of Consequences: COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy

Comparative empirical evidence for 22 OECD countries shows that country differences in cumulative mortality impacts of SARS-CoV-2 are caused by weaknesses in public health competences, pre-existing variances in structural socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, and the presence of fiscal constraints. Remarkably, the (fiscally non-constrained) U.S. and the U.K. stand out, as they experience mortality outcomes similar to those of fiscally-constrained countries. High COVID19 mortality in the U.S. and the U.K. is due to pre-existing socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, created by the following macroeconomic policy errors: (a) a deadly emphasis on fiscal austerity (which diminished public health capacities, damaged public health and deepened inequalities);(b) an obsessive belief in a trade-off between ‘efficiency' and ‘equity', which is mostly used to justify extreme inequality;(c) a complicit endorsement by mainstream macro of the unchecked power over monetary and fiscal policy-making of global finance and the rentier class;and (d) an unhealthy aversion to raising taxes, which deceives the public about the necessity to raise taxes to counter the excessive liquidity preference of the rentiers and to realign the interests of finance and of the real economy. The paper concludes by outlining a few lessons for a saner macroeconomics.

The impact of Covid-19 on the capital structure in emerging economies: evidence from India

PurposeCapital structure is an important corporate financing decision, particularly for companies in emerging economies. This paper attempts to understand whether the pandemic had any significant impact on the capital structure of companies in emerging economies. India being a prominent emerging economy is an ideal candidate for the analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilizes three leverage ratios in an extended market index, BSE500, for the period 2015–2021. The ratios considered are short-term leverage ratio (STLR), long-term leverage ratio (LTLR) and total leverage ratio (TLR). A dummy variable differentiates the pre-epidemic (2015–2019) and pandemic (2020–2021) period. Control variables are used to represent firm characteristics such as growth, tangibility, profit, size and liquidity. Dynamic panel data regression is employed to address endogeneity.FindingsThe findings point out that Covid-19 has had a significant, negative effect on LTLR, while the impact on STLR and TLR was insignificant. The findings indicate that companies based in a culturally risk-averse environment, such as India, would reduce the long-term debt to avoid bankruptcy in times of uncertainty.Research limitations/implicationsThe study covers the impact of the pandemic on Indian companies. Hence, generalization of the findings to global context might not be valid.Practical implicationsTo maintain economic growth in the post-crisis period, Indian policymakers should ensure accessibility to low-cost capital. The findings provide impetus to deepen the insignificant corporate bond market in India for future economic revival.Originality/valueDeveloping countries are struggling to revive the economies postpandemic. This is particularly true for Asian economies which are heavily reliant on banks for survival. This research finds evidence to utilize bond market as a source of raising capital for economic revival.

Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the effect of remittance inflows on external debt in developing countries, by identifying international reserves as a potential transmission channel. Using panel data over the period 1970–2017 and covering 50 low-and middle-income countries worldwide, we find a positive and significant effect of remittance inflows on the external debt-to-GDP ratio. We also find a negative and significant effect of international reserves on external debt. After controlling for international reserves, the effect of remittance inflows on external debt increases;it remains positive and significant. The results suggest that the role of international reserves as a self-insurance mechanism, and the Dutch disease effect related to remittance inflows are at play. In addition, we find negative and significant effects of economic growth and savings-investment gap on external debt. We also find positive and significant effects of the nominal exchange rate and the United States lending interest rate on external debt. We discuss the policy implications of these findings, while highlighting factors that policymakers should focus on for containing external debt in developing countries in the post-COVID-19.

Potential cultivating plant-based raw materials in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for the pharmaceutical industry: an online survey from the perspective of the pharmaceutical industry

The goal of this study is to assess the potential of cultivating plant-based raw materials in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern from the perspective of the pharmaceutical industry and to discuss the factors that could hinder the realization of high-quality cultivation. Procuring high-quality plant-based materials is crucial for the production of plant-based medicines, and the pharmaceutical industry has faced increasing challenges in sourcing these materials in recent years. The methodology involved surveying pharmaceutical companies that are members of the German Pharmaceutical Industry Association and are involved in the fields of homeopathic/anthroposophic medicines and plant-based pharmaceuticals. An online questionnaire was used to collect data. According to the pharmaceutical industry's perspective, there is growing demand for plant-based raw materials from domestic cultivation. Stable supply chains, quality, and reliability are seen as primary advantages over foreign cultivation. Geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively affected the stability of supply chains for imported goods. 73% of companies reported encountering import difficulties multiple times. The majority of pharmaceutical companies can envision increased cooperation with agricultural enterprises in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Sustainability in sourcing was already deemed significant by more than two-thirds of the respondents. The study concludes that the importance of sustainable pharmaceutical production, stable supply chains, and high-quality plant-based raw materials will continue to grow. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern provides favorable conditions to meet a portion of the demand. To fully utilize the theoretical potential, close collaboration between the industry, academia, and policymakers is needed, along with minimizing regulatory and bureaucratic barriers for agricultural enterprises.

Behavioral biases in corporate risk management and investment decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused great turbulence in global financial markets. The first goal of this conceptual paper is to explore whether managers of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange are susceptible to selected behavioral biases related to irrational risk preferences. We also seek to investigate whether susceptibility to these errors may affect selected management practices in the areas of corporate risk management and investment policy. The second major goal of our project is to identify whether there is a link at the micro level, that is, between the aforementioned irrational management practices resulting from susceptibility to behavioral biases and the macro level (i.e., certain macroeconomic indicators, such as aggregate investment, employment, and growth). We hope that our research project will contribute to shifting the paradigm of economics in such a way that the behavioral approach will be increasingly used and acknowledged by researchers.

Evaluation Model of Business Sustainability: Analysis and Consolidation of Existing Approaches: Acces la Success

The concept and practicalities of sustainable business development attract increasing interest of general public, companies, legislators, activists, academics and many others. Our understanding of what constitutes sustainability is evolving, especially nowadays when the pandemic and digitalization caused major shifts globally. In such conditions, it is no wonder that managers and business owners may face difficulties in implementation and evaluation of sustainable practices. Therefore, The objective: of the paper is to examine theoretical foundations of the concept of business sustainability and propose an up-to-date model for its appraisal. The paper is divided into two primary parts in addition to introduction and conclusion. The first part is dedicated to the examination of the terms 'stability' and 'sustainability' universally and in business environment. The second part includes description of our suggested evaluation model of economic, social and environmental sustainability perspectives using relevant indicators. Methods/Analysis: the research includes review of academic literature and empirical research on the topic of business sustainability and analytical consolidation of existing approaches to its appraisal. Findings: theoretical contribution to perception and development of the conditions of business stability and sustainability, and evaluation model including specific indicators across the three primary sustainability directions. Application/Improvements: the research is useful to general public, but is of special interest to business leaders interested in implementation of sustainable practices.

The War in Ukraine: How Putin's War in Ukraine Has Ruined Russia

The first two months of war alone turned the Russian clock back decades, undoing thirty years of post-Soviet economic gains and reducing the country to an international pariah state. Three decades after the collapse of the Soviet empire, Russians are being dragged back in time to when Soviet citizens lived isolated from the rest of the world, in a bubble of failed ideology and misinformation. That system fell apart under just the kind of autarky and autocracy that Putin hopes to reimpose. Just as the Soviet system collapsed, Putin is also failing Russia, erasing the gains of the postcommunist period in a feckless attempt to rebuild a doomed empire.

Do the macro and global economic factors drive the nonperforming loans in GCC economies?

PurposeThe current study aims to investigate the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the GCC economies during the period spanning 2000 to 2018. It also examines whether the worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008, which brought the issue of non–performing loans to the greater attention of academics and policymakers, had a substantial impact on NPLs in this region.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of 53 conventional banks from GCC countries, and the basic data for the study is obtained from various sources such as Bankscope, IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank and Chicago Board of Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. The estimations were done by dynamic panel data regression modeling using system generalized methods of moments.FindingsThe findings reveal that both, the non-oil real GDP growth rate and inflation have favorable effects on NPLs. On the other hand, domestic credit to the private sector and the volatility index have an adverse effect on NPLs. Furthermore, the period-wise analysis shows that the relevance and significance of the determinants of NPLs vary between the precrisis and postcrisis periods. It is also reflected through the intercept dummy, which is found to be significant, indicating that the financial crisis, as a global economic factor, had a significant impact on NPLs. A number of robustness tests are applied, which indicate that the results are mostly robust and consistent in terms of the significance of the explanatory variables and the direction of their relationship with the dependent variable.Practical implicationsPolicymakers and bank authorities must strive to maintain a healthy economy and implement macroprudential policies to improve the financial stability of banks and reduce credit risk.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is likely the first study that empirically investigates the influence of the financial crisis on NPLs in the context of GCC economies. In addition, the research spans 19 years to produce more conclusive results.

The Differential Effects of Oil Prices on the Development of Renewable Energy in Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries in Africa

The shift to renewable sources of energy has become a critical economic priority in African countries due to energy challenges. However, investors in the development of renewable energy face problems with decision making due to the existence of multiple criteria, such as oil prices and the associated macroeconomic performance. This study aims to analyze the differential effects of international oil prices and other macroeconomic factors on the development of renewable energy in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in Africa. The study uses a panel vector error correction model (P-VECM) to analyze data from five net oil exporters (Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria) and five net oil importers (Kenya, Ethiopia, Congo, Mozambique and South Africa). The study finds that higher oil prices positively affect the development of renewable energy in oil-importing countries by making renewable energy more economically competitive. Economic growth is also identified as a major driver of the development of renewable energy. While high-interest rates negatively affect the development of renewable energy in oil-importing countries, it has positive effects in oil-exporting countries. Exchange rates play a crucial role in the development of renewable energy in both types of countries with a negative effect in oil-exporting countries and a positive effect in oil-importing countries. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers should take a holistic approach to the development of renewable energy that considers the complex interplay of factors, such as oil prices, economic growth, interest rates, and exchange rates.

COVID-19 and Microeconomic Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Study on Ethiopian and Nigerian Households

The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic on overall welfare depends on the resilience of microeconomic units, particularly households, to cope and recover from the shocks created by the pandemic. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where the pandemic has been less pervasive, the pandemic is expected to increase food insecurity, vulnerability, and ultimately poverty. To accurately measure the welfare impact of the pandemic on the macroeconomy, it is important to account for the distributional impact on households and the ability of households to cope with it, which reflects their microeconomic resilience. In this paper, we seek to determine the differential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on household microeconomic resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use direct measurements of economic indicators to measure the impact of the pandemic on 6249 households across Ethiopia and Nigeria. Given that resilience is a latent variable, the FAO's Resilience Index Measure Analysis (RIMA) framework is utilized to construct the resilience index. We hypothesize that the pandemic created differential economic impacts among households and ultimately household microeconomic resilience. Study findings show that government containment measures improved household microeconomic resilience, while self-containment measures lowered microeconomic resilience. Additionally, households that relied on wage employment and non-farm businesses as their main source of livelihood were found to be more microeconomic resilient.

Reinstating fiscal policy for normal times: Public investment and Public Jobs Programmes

This paper upholds the classical Keynesian position that a laissez-faire market economy lacks a spontaneous tendency to full employment. Focusing on the UK case, it argues that monetary policy could not prevent the economic collapse of 2008-9 or achieve full recovery from the Great Recession that followed. The paper then outlines the case for fiscal policy to regain a permanent status of primacy in modern macroeconomic management, beyond the pandemic emergency. It distinguishes between public investment and automatic stabilisers, reducing discretionary actions to a minimum. It presents the case for re-empowering the State'spublic investment function and for reforming the system of automatic counter-cyclical stabilisers by means of public jobs programmes.

Social Vulnerability and Macroeconomic Forecast: A Review from the Current Context.

In the current context, various factors add to the existing social and economic crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which, when articulated with common conflicting facts, increase projections regarding the slowdown in the economy, with an impact on inflation and declines in global economic growth. As part of the adverse effects of these variables, if the increase in the cost of basic products and services was anticipated, the supply chain escaped, food safety, the widening of social gaps, poverty, contributing to the massification of restrictive medicines, increasing vulnerabilities in social and political scenarios, in addition to less dynamism in the global economy, in the availability of food resources, increases in energy prices, inflationary pressure, among others. Previously, this investigative note explores the macroeconomic forecast, taking as reference the informants of the year 2022 brought by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Economic Committee for Latin America and the Caribbean and the Inter-American Development Bank. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] En el contexto actual, diversos factores se suman a la crisis social y económica a existente, como la pandemia COVID-19 y la invasión rusa a Ucrania que, al articularse con los hechos conflictivos comunes, aumentan las proyecciones con respecto a la desaceleración de la economía, con incidencia en la inflación y mermas en el crecimiento económico global. Como parte de los efectos adversos de estas va1riables, se prevé el aumento en el costo de los productos y servicios básicos, escasez en la cadena de suministros, inseguridad alimentaria, ampliación de las brechas sociales, de la pobreza, contribuyendo a la toma de medidas restrictivas, aumentando las vulnerabilidades en los escenarios sociales y en materia política, además de un menor dinamismo en la economía global, en la disponibilidad de recursos alimentarios, aumentos de los precios de la energía, presión inflacionaria, entre otros. En virtud de lo anterior, la presente nota de investigación explora la prognosis macroeconómica, tomando como referentes los informes del año 2022 aportados por el Banco Mundial, el Fondo Monetario Internacional, la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe y el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. (Spanish) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Revista de Filosofía is the property of Revista de Filosofia-Universidad del Zulia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

The impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on hospitality stock returns in China

Coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) has already devastated the world, and the economy becomes the most critical challenge for any country worldwide. The increasing uncertainty of the COVID‐19 outbreak has made stock markets in China more turbulent and less predictable. Under the current exceptional circumstances, the hospitality industry suffered the most due to the travel restrictions. This research thus assesses the dynamic relationship among the COVID‐19 outbreak, macroeconomic fluctuations and hospitality stock returns based on a structural VAR framework from 13 January to 11 May 2020, in China. Evidence reveals that macroeconomic fluctuations and hospitality stock returns are significantly affected by shocks from the COVID‐19 outbreak. An unanticipated positive change of the COVID‐19 explosion triggers an addition in exchange rates and causes a reduction in the stock market and hospitality industry returns. For the impacts of the exchange rate, findings reveal that a surprise increase in exchange rates (currency depreciation) exerts a significant negative influence on stock market returns. Additionally, a positive change of stock market returns is linked to a decline in exchange rates and a rise in hospitality industry returns. Therefore, knowledge of these relationships can enable policymakers to evaluate and implement effective policies to stabilize the stock markets and help investors to make appropriate investment strategies.

Pandemics, Socioeconomic Gaps, and Macroeconomic Policy: The Ugly Truth Highlighted by COVID-19

Economic stratification lies at the heart of persistent inequities, which have been considerably amplified under COVID-19. To tackle these persistent inequities, a social economics approach and common goods focused policy for at-risk groups are required. Using this approach, this article highlights various past macroeconomic and health policy decisions that have created the conditions for the social and spatial distribution of COVID-19 infections, deaths, and other deleterious outcomes. Additionally, the linkages between health and socioeconomic status are explored, shedding light on the current and likely gaps present given the Covid19 global pandemic. One cannot look at the COVID-19 crisis in a vacuum, but rather how the crisis reflects deeply rooted institutional, structural, and systemic social stratification. This article contributes to the existing literature by analysing it through the lens of occupational prestige. The recognition of social economics and the growing stratification of Americans is necessary to enact healthier policies for all, but especially marginalized communities.

THE MICROPRUDENTIAL STRESS TESTING FOR BANKING SYSTEM. A STUDY CASE ON ALGERIAN PRIVATE BANK, USING ACCOUNTING APPROACH

The aim of this article is to highlight the importance and effectiveness of stress testing as part of microprudential policy. We focus on microprudential stress testing to assess financial stability, the resilience and solvency of one important private bank in Algeria in the face of liquidity risk. Our empirical analysis adopts a bottom-up approach based on an accounting method. It studies the relationship between the bank solvency ratio (ratio cook) and bank portfolios, such as loans to the construction, trade, industry, and automotive sectors. Microeconomic stress tests assess the credit risk of a bank's loan portfolio by bottom-up accounting approach, applying eleven pessimistic and plausible multi-variable scenarios with potential risks. The tests introduce several types of microeconomic shocks into the scenarios, which are designed to replicate those that occurred during the global financial crisis. The tests results show that this private bank is highly resistant to liquidity risk, despite significant losses on its investment portfolio. The stress tests prove once again, and especially after the 2008 financial crisis, that they are indispensable tools in the management of banking risks and against systemic risks.

Ibovespa's Response to the Behavior of Oil and Ore Prices During the International Crisis Caused by COVID-19

El riesgo sistémico causado por el COVID-19 afectó a todos los sectores de la economía y con ello se denotó la vulnerabilidad de algunos sectores en comparación con otros. En este contexto, llamó la atención el choque de oferta experimentado por el sector minero, que, en consecuencia, se tradujo en una alta apreciación de los precios. Vinculado a esto, y con efectos negativos, se produjo en este periodo la devaluación de los precios del petróleo, explicada, entre otros factores, por la guerra de precios entre los países productores. En este sentido, el presente estudio analiza la volatilidad del indicador bursátil brasileño considerando los precios de los productos antes mencionados y la cotización del dólar. Los resultados muestran la importancia de la formación de precios de estos mercados en la variación del indicador de la Bolsa de Brasil, y la apreciación de los precios del petróleo y el mineral Brent cotizados en el mercado de minerales básicos de Dalian (China) deriva en que el indicador Ibovespa vaya en la misma dirección. Además, en términos estadísticos, el estudio destaca la gran importancia del precio de la moneda extranjera como determinante en la variación del indicador de Ibovespa y, consecuentemente, con efectos en la intención de inversión.Alternate :The systemic risk caused by COVID-19 affected all sectors of the economy, thus showing the vulnerability of some sectors in comparison to others. In this context, the supply shock experienced by the iron ore sector has drawn attention and resulted in a price increase. Linked to this, and in a negative way, oil prices fell due, among other factors, to the price war between producing countries. In this sense, this study analyses the volatility of the Brazilian stock market indicator in relation to the prices of the aforementioned products and the price of the dollar. The results show the importance of the price formation in these markets for the variation of the indicator. The appreciation of Brent oil and iron ore prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), in China, caused the Ibovespa indicator to move in the same direction. In addition, in statistical terms, the study highlights the great importance of the exchange rate as a determinant in the variation of the indicator and, consequently, affecting the intention to invest.

Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group

The influence of recent global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war on the variability of major macroeconomic trends not only shows synchronized behavior across economies but also induces similar policy responses to counter these shocks. The purpose of this article is to explore the transmission of inflation among the G20 economies and evaluate its contribution to domestic inflation. To this end, we use the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover approach. The results that emerge from unconditional analysis reveal stark dissimilarities in inflation spillover patterns between advanced and emerging economies. Advanced economies are subject to higher spillover rates and thereby more exposed to global shocks compared to their emerging counterparts. Inflation in emerging countries is mainly derived from idiosyncratic shocks, while global shocks have only a modest influence on domestic inflation. In addition, bilateral spillovers among the G20 members show that the average pairwise directional spillovers between emerging economies are lower compared to advanced economies. The results pertaining to the spillover dynamics, on the other hand, show that total inflation spillover has a clear upward trend, indicating that the overall interconnectedness between G20 countries is increasing over time. Moreover, the estimates of spillover dynamics show a growing influence of received inflation spillovers from external shocks in both advanced and emerging economies. Policymakers in advanced economies are expected to respond to global shocks to mitigate the influence of spillovers, which is essential for economies that display high spillovers and turn out to be net receivers of shocks. However, public agencies in emerging economies should concentrate more on internal shocks to control inflation while not ignoring global shocks.

Africa's Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook: January 2023

Global macroeconomic conditions have recently become increasingly uncertain with the persistence of multiple shocks that make policymaking and investment decisions very challenging. The highly volatile external envi-ronment has spilled over to the African conti-nent, threatening to halt the gradual recovery from the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamic and persistent nature of global shocks and their interac-tion with prevailing pockets of domestic and regional risks require regular diagnosis and targeted policy actions to address their impact on African economies.